Our Vision and Philosophy
Climate change is one of the most pressing environmental challenges facing humanity.
The ultimate goal of our research group is to improve our ability to predict the future evolution of the climate system driven by anthropogenic forcing and natural variability.
We believe that understanding the physics of the climate system is essential for making reliable predictions of future climate. Accordingly, we develop and apply quantitative approaches to studying the climate system and elucidating the physical mechanisms governing its variability and change.
We pursue fundamental advances in climate science across a broad range of directions, including the development of new conceptual frameworks, theories, and models, the discovery of previously unrecognized phenomena, and the resolution of long-standing problems in the field. Through these efforts, we aim to open new research directions and push the frontiers of climate science.
Our Focus
Our research is rooted in large-scale climate dynamics, with an emphasis on coupled atmosphere–ocean processes and their broader interactions with the cryosphere and terrestrial systems. Spatially, our research spans from the tropics to the polar regions. Temporally, we focus on present-day and future climate, while occasionally drawing on paleoclimate records to better understand the long-term evolution and sensitivity of the climate system.
We use an integrated approach that combines observations, theory, and a hierarchy of models spanning a broad range of complexity—from simple conceptual models to fully coupled Earth system models—alongside emerging AI-based approaches.
Research Themes
Our research centers on two interconnected themes.
1. Future Climate Change Dynamics
A central challenge in climate science is to understand and predict how the climate system will respond to anthropogenic warming. While many aspects of climate change evolve gradually, some of the most consequential changes may arise from abrupt, nonlinear, or unexpected responses of the climate system. We investigate these high-impact responses across major components of the climate system and seek to uncover the physical mechanisms, critical thresholds, and interactions that shape future climate trajectories.
Abrupt Climate Change
Investigating critical thresholds, nonlinear processes, and cascading interactions associated with abrupt changes in major climate elements, including ocean circulation, monsoon systems, ice sheets, and terrestrial ecosystems.
Emergent Climate Phenomena
Identifying new climate behaviors that may emerge—or existing phenomena that may disappear—as the climate system warms, including novel extremes, variability modes, circulation patterns, and precipitation regimes.
Irreversibility and Climate Recovery
Assessing the reversibility and recovery potential of the climate system under mitigation scenarios, including emission reductions, net-zero pathways, and carbon dioxide removal.
2. Climate Variability Modes and Global Impacts
The climate system exhibits large-scale modes of natural variability that drive fluctuations from interannual to decadal timescales and influence weather and environmental systems worldwide. We study major modes of climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and modes of variability in the polar regions. We seek to understand their underlying dynamics, improve their predictability, and quantify their influence on the global climate and environmental systems.
Dynamics and Predictability
Developing physics-based theories and modeling frameworks to explain the fundamental dynamics of major climate variability modes and improve predictions of their intensity, frequency, and evolution.
Interactions with Global Warming
Investigating the two-way interactions through which anthropogenic warming alters climate variability, while climate variability modulates the timing, rate, and regional patterns of warming.
Impacts on Global Environmental Systems
Quantifying how climate variability affects hydrological extremes, heatwaves, wildfires, marine heatwaves, coral bleaching, and regional precipitation through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.